Bear Market News July 2008



Spooky isn't it?

The image at the top is the last Australian bear market/crash of 2001-2003 (charts created with Incredible Charts software, a very affordable product by the way).

The image below it is the current bear market of 2007-2008.

My name is Shockadelic (yes, really) and I am only an amateur at technical analysis, but there seems to be an uncanny similarity here.

Both trends start with a sudden sharp drop, followed by a rally back up to just above the prior high, making a double top.
Then a slow decline to around the same low as before.
A minor bull rally follows which peters out pretty quick and again drops to near the previous low.
Then a prolonged rally at a moderate, not sharp, angle.
And finally the last downward leg to the bottom is also prolonged and at a moderate, not sharp, angle.

What happens after the bottom?
Well in 2003, there was a four and a half year bull market, with all time highs!

The images are of the Australian stockmarket.
Images from other markets don't seem to show the same duplication, but it's possible those entities have their own particular cycles and patterns.

One difference about the two trends is speed.
Maybe this is the influence of online trading, which is much more common today than last time.
Today's bear seems more drastic only because it has happened at a faster pace.
It's kind of like playing a 33 record at 45. Same song, just sped up.

If this reflects the future behaviour of the coming bull market, it will be stronger, faster, higher than any before it!

I am not a professional and am not offering advice, but simply presenting this information so you can draw your own conclusions.
A lot of people are peddling "gloom and doom" predictions right now about a recession or super-bear, but we are currently around the 38-50% Fibonacci/Gann retracement of the 2003-2007 bull market (which if this were an individual security would be considered totally normal and nothing to panic about), so my perception is that we are at the bottom right now and a bull market is just itching to blast off.

If you want to contact me, email shockadelic@hotmail.com

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